Week 3 - CFB Picks & Analysis

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Week 3 - CFB Picks & Analysis

Baylor at Washington State (Over 50) - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #343-344
The Washington State offense is very, very good. QB Alex Brink recorded the best QB rating ever by a sophomore with 100 passes or more last year and is back for his junior season. Brink battled a case of strep throat leading up to the Auburn game in week one and did not play well but looked better than ever in last week's 56-10 win over Idaho in which the Cougars racked up 637 total yards. WR Jason Hill already holds many school receiving records and passed up the NFL draft to come back for his senior year. Big time playmaker Michael Bumpus, experienced senior Chris Jordan (3 TD's last week), and senior TE Cory Boyd join Hill to make for an impressive group of receivers. Starting RB DeMaundray Woolridge sat out last week with a contusion injury but is back practicing and is expected to start Saturday. The Cougars averaged 33.5 points per game last season and actually ran over 53% of the time. With the departure of 1,996 yard RB Jerome Harrison, and a more experienced QB, they figure to throw more often this year. The WSU defense gave up 31.5ppg last year and remain a big question mark. They then have bit hit hard by several key injuries. Projected starting DE Matt Mullenix and starting DT Fevaea'i Ahu were both lost to injuries before the first game. Four defensive backs missed last week's game vs Idaho. Two are expected to return this week (starting safety Michael Willis, backup CB Courtney Williams), but two remain out this week (starting CB Don Turner, top backup CB Markus Dawes). Arguably the team's top LB Scott Davis (achilles) missed practice time this week but is expected to play Saturday.

New Baylor offensive coordinator Lee Hays has installed a Texas Tech style of spread offense here. Through two games, Baylor has six plays of 40 yards or longer. That's more than half of last season's total (11). Of the team's nine scoring drives, five have taken less than a minute. The Bears 21.5ppg average last year was their highest output since 1996 and they should surpass that figure this year. Eight starters are back including QB Shawn Bell, RB Paul Mosely, and WR Dominique Ziegler. All three led the team at their respective position last year and are seniors this year. Baylor gained a respectable 333 yards and converted 60% on 3rd down vs a well regarded TCU defense in their season opener. Due to an array of miscues and missed opportunities they only ended up with a misleading 7 points. They put up 47 points last week vs 1-AA Northwestern State despite top WR Ziegler and top RB Mosely being held out with minor injuries. Both are expected to be fine for this game. Baylor had an experienced defense last year and still gave up 26.5ppg. This year only 4 starters are back. Starting defensive tackle MT Robinson missed last week with a foot injury and is questionable Saturday. Baylor's defense looked good for most of the TCU game in week 1, but the Horned Frogs played the majority of the game without their starting QB. Baylor's suspect defensive line was warn down by the 4th quarter. The dynamic Washington State offense will be a huge challenge for Baylor's defense.

Weather calls for cool temperatures (low 60's) and partly cloudy skies. The game is being played in Seattle, not Pullman, so it will have more of a neutral feel to it. Washington State blew leads in several of their losses last year and their constant motto in the offseason was to "finish" games. They poured it on Idaho last week and as a double digit favorite here could get the chance to do so again. This line is too low. Expect a high scoring affair.

Official Play: Over 50 1 UNIT

Ole Miss at Kentucky (-3.5) - 3:00pm Pacific - Game #353-354
To say that Kentucky battled injury woes last season would be a huge understatement. No less than 12 starters or key reserves were lost for the season and a total of 31 players underwent some type of surgery last year. The Wildcats were already down on scholarship players due to sanctions from the Hal Mumme era. This year they are back up to 78, their highest since 2001. Many of the injured players are back healthy, and many of the young backups that were forced into action last year gained valuable experience. Kentucky has 9 starters back on offense. Good looking QB Andre Woodson (6-5, strong arm, mobile for his size) reportedly worked harder than ever this past offseason and is poised for an improved season. RB Rafeal Little earned second team SEC honors last year. Big play WR Keenan Burton is back after playing in only 1 game last year. His return has allowed sophomore Dicky Lyons (4 TD's in first two games) to emerge as a second pass catching threat. Solid junior TE Jacob Tamme is battling a hamstring injury this week but will likely play. The Kentucky defense has been a glaring weakness in recent seasons but they return 7 starters and have significantly upgraded their depth on that side of the ball. Highly touted LB recruit Micah Johnson is already battling for a starting job. Kentucky was beaten badly in opener at Louisville (no surprise) but bounced back with a confidence boosting blowout win over 1-AA Texas State last week.

Ole Miss only returned 10 starters from last year's 3-8 team. They are learning a new offensive system and have a very young defensive line that has gotten even younger due to injuries. The Rebels started the season with a suspect 3 point win over Memphis. They were outgained by 40+ yards and barely held on for the win despite playing at home, recovering a key fumble, and scoring on a trick play. They then went on the road to Missouri and were dominated in every faucet of the game. They were outgained by 309 yards and lost 34-7. Ole Miss is currently the only school from a BCS conference to rank 100th or worse in both total offense and total defense. Big things were expected from transfer QB Brent Schaeffer but so far he has been inconsistent at best. A below average offensive line and a very inexperienced group of receivers has not helped his efforts. On defense Ole Miss is expected to start two true freshman at DE and two sophomores at DT. One of the starters, sophomore Peria Jerry, is playing at less than 100%. The defensive line has been hurt by injuries to starting DE Chris Bowers (foot) and nose tackle Jeremy Garrett (leg) who both missed last game and are not expected back this week. They also are missing touted DL recruit Jerrell Powe for whom the NCAA just passed along a decision to uphold his ineligible status.

Kentucky's decision to keep head coach Rich Brooks for another season has been criticized, but this is really the first year that Brooks has had a legitimate chance to be successful. This is a make or break season and game for Kentucky. UK lost by 6 at Ole Miss last season but lost 3 fumbles in the game. This year they are much healthier and are playing at home. Dating back to last season Ole Miss has lost five straight road games by an average margin of 19.4 points. Kentucky could not ask for a better opportunity to snap their 18 year losing streak in SEC openers. Look for the Wildcats to get this much needed win.

Official Play: Kentucky -3.5 1 UNIT


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