Week 4 - CFB Picks & Analysis

[ed902]

Week 4 - CFB Picks & Analysis

Tulsa (+4.5) at Navy - 10:30am Pacific - Game #129-130
Two weeks ago Tulsa lost on the road to a strong BYU team who was primed to make a statement in their home opener. In fact the Cougars came back the next week and outplayed Boston College on the road before losing in OT. In this matchup Tulsa takes on a more favorable opponent in one dimensional Navy. Tulsa did rebound from the BYU loss with an easy 28-3 win over North Texas last week. Their high powered offense was slow to get on track in part due to two first half turnovers but 21 second half points quickly put the game out of reach. Junior QB Paul Smith comes into this game with a 28-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Tulsa defense that returns 9 starters made a statement by holding North Texas to just 89 total yards for the game. Tulsa's defense is no stranger to strong rushing teams. They faced six teams last year who ranked in the top 40 in rush offense, including three from the top 11, and went 4-2 ATS. This is the most talented and experienced defense they have had in the last decade. Tulsa starting RB Tarrion Adams (knee) will not play this week but they are deep at the position.

Navy has been fortunate in their first three games to face a 1-AA team and two 1-A teams who struggle to stop the run. In their season opener Navy beat East Carolina 28-23 and only completed 2 passes. The Pirates ranked 112th in the nation in run defense last year. Navy then struggled mightily with 1-AA UMass. The Midshipmen were outgained for the game and escaped with a 21-20 win. Navy only completed one pass prompting head coach Paul Johnson to say after the game, "It's as bad of an offensive team as I have coached. I am concerned about the lack of quarterback play." Last week Navy looked better in a 37-9 win at Stanford but even that result is misleading as the Cardinal have been decimated with injuries and are playing awful football right now. Navy recovered two Stanford fumbles on kickoff's alone during the game. Navy first year starting QB Brian Hampton went 8-for-11 vs Stanford but is still only 10-for-20 on the season. He was close to losing his starting job due to his lack of accuracy and sloppy ball handling in the backfield. Navy's defense has typically struggled against good passing teams and their secondary is banged up right now. Starting FS DuJuan Price remains sidelined with a quad injury and starting rover Ketric Buffin is questionable with a sprained ankle. Both missed last week's game and Navy is again likely to start two underclassmen in the secondary this week.

Tulsa won 9 games last year including the C-USA championship game and the Liberty Bowl as a +7.5 dog over Fresno State. They are very experienced with 16 starters back and are extremely well coached. Tulsa will present both the best offense and best defense that Navy has faced so far this year. In 2004 Paul Johnson's best Navy team beat Steve Kragthorpe's worst Tulsa team 29-0. Kragthorpe has a good shot at turning the tables this time around with what is likely his best Tulsa team yet. Take the points.

Official Play: Tulsa +4.5 1 UNIT

Air Force (+1) at Wyoming - 1:30pm Pacific - Game #149-150
The Falcons are coming off their first ever back to back losing seasons under head coach Fisher DeBerry. Their motto in the offseason was "Return to Dominance". They had a very strong showing in their season opener at Tennessee. They played evenly with the Vols for the majority of the game and lost by 1 point after failing on a 2-point conversion with a minute left. Air Force has a very potent offense this season. Shaun Carney was the first ever freshman to start at a season opener at QB here and he is now a polished junior. Carney went 7-for-9 vs Tennessee and DeBerry said they will look to pass more vs Wyoming. AF's top five rushers from last season all return. They put an emphasis on improving speed at RB and they averaged 6.85ypc on non-QB carries vs UT despite top FB senior Jacobe Kendrick (hamstring) missing the game. Kendrick is probable to play Saturday. Defensively, Air Force showed improvement in their first game as they limited big plays and held Tennesssee to just 79 yards rushing (2.5ypc). Air Force is always solid in special teams and only were called for three penalties on the road in first game.

Wyoming first year starting QB Jacob Doss has received mixed reviews. He put up solid numbers vs Utah State in season opener when but when facing better defenses vs Virginia and Boise State his numbers have not been impressive. Doss has already thrown 4 interceptions, two of which have been returned for TD's. Head coach Joe Glenn said this week that Doss has to be more accurate for the team to be successful. Wyoming has only converted 10 of 31 on third down and has generated just 16 regulation points in last two games combined. Defensively, the Cowboys have improved signifcantly on paper, but their first two opponents Utah State (119th) & Virginia (112th) are among the worst offensive teams in the country. The Air Force triple option will pose a whole new set of problems. Wyoming has already lost two of their better lineman. Starting senior center Jason Karcher (knee) was lost after the second game and this week they will be without senior DE Mike Groover (knee sprain) who led the team in sacks last year and currently leads the team again with two this year.

Air Force is coming off a BYE week and are 15-10 ATS after a BYE under Fisher DeBerry. Teams usually take time off during BYE weeks to rest and heal injuries but because it is so early in the season Air Force immediately began preperations for Wyoming after the Tennessee game. DeBerry couldn't emphasize enough how important this game was for the program, saying near the end of his weekly coaches show that it may be the most important game he has ever coached in. Air Force is 18-4 straight up in their second game of the season under DeBerry and 9-1 ATS in second lined game of the season since 1995. They are also 23-11 ATS as a road dog since 1994. Air Force lost a one point heartbreaker to Wyoming last year that spoiled a 2-0 start to the season. Expect them to get revenge with a solid win in this spot.

Official Play: Air Force +1 1 UNIT

Visit Free College Basketball Picks college basketball picks college football picks college basketball predictions college football predictions ncaa basketball picks basketball predictions basketball handicapper football handicapper sports handicapper spor for more quality college sports handicapping information, insight, and analysis.

Visit Bigger Bonus - Sportsbook Bonuses, Poker Promos, Extra $50 for the World's Best Sportsbook Deals.