This weekend's picks with analysis

[ed902]

This weekend's picks with analysis

New Mexico State (pick) at Idaho - 2:00pm Pacific - Game #165-166
Head coach Hal Mumme may have not run the cleanest program at Kentucky but he had more success there than anyone in recent memory. His offenses have always been potent and in his second year at New Mexico State the Aggies currently rank first nationally in total offense at 535ypg. The Aggies have shown significant improvement this year losing by just 6 vs quality opponents UTEP and New Mexico, both of whom beat the Aggies easily last year. This year NMSU out yarded both opponents. New starting QB Chase Holbrook played for Mumme at 1-AA Southeastern Louisiana two years ago before transferring here so he knows the system well. He has completed 67% of his passes and has a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio in first four games. Former Vanderbilt head coach and Pittsburgh Steeler defensive coordinator Woody Widenhofer is in charge of the defense. This unit still has a ways to go but they are improved from last year when they allowed 38.3ppg. Last season the struggling offense continually put the defense in bad situations and the team had a -23 turnover ratio. With the improvement of the offense, the defense is on the field much less and will continue to improve under Widenhofer.

Dennis Erickson was a great hire for Idaho but he has quite a mess to clean up. The Vandals have horrible facilities and went 11-47 in the previous five seasons. Last week's 41-21 win over a horrible Utah State team was one of the most misleading final scores of the season. Utah State actually had a 14-10 lead and was driving inside the Idaho 10 yard line when a pass was intercepted and returned 98 yards for a touchdown changing the entire complexion of the game. Idaho added a 74 yard fumble return for a touchdown in the second half. The two teams finished with similar total yardage. Idaho's offense has been plagued by a weak offensive line, too many penalties, and suspect decision making by QB Steve Wichman. WR Lee Smith (knee) a starter in three games and fourth on the team in receiving was injured last week and will not play. The defense has been downright awful the past two seasons and this year ranks 112 in total defense, 99th in pass defense, and 100th in pass efficiency defense. Starting CB Reggie Jones has missed last two games and remains uncertain this week. He is listed as a backup on the depth chart. Idaho's starting safety is a true freshman who is second on the team in tackles. The Vandal defense figures to have its hands full and then some this week.

Last year Idaho won at New Mexico State by a point in double overtime. NMSU has improved considerably in the second year of their new systems and have a much more productive QB at the helm. The Aggies should be able to shred right through the Idaho defense. It is unlikely the inconsistent Idaho offense will be able to trade points in this matchup. Idaho's Kibble Dome is given just a 2 point home field advantage by The Gold Sheet, one of the lowest in the country. The Vandals are just 8-14 straight up here since 2001. This could turn into a shootout but expect the Aggies to end up on top.

RAS Official Play: New Mexico State Pk 1 UNIT

Wyoming at New Mexico (+1.5) - 5:00pm Pacific - Game #193-194
Seemingly every season it is easy to write off New Mexico in the early going and this year is no different. The Lobos lost to 1-AA Portland State in their season opener and then lost starting QB Kole McKamey in game two. They went on to win that game vs instate rival NMSU, who is an improved team and followed that up with a decent performance vs #23 Missouri, losing by 10. They then surprised everyone by dominating UTEP 26-13 here in Albuquerque. Last week they played almost evenly on the road with a very good Air Force team. Two costly turnovers gave Air Force 14 points on short drives and they fell 24-7. Senior QB Chris Nelson continues to pick up the new offense under first year coordinator Bob Toledo (former UCLA head coach) and this week will get the services of speedy RB Martelius Epps who won the starting job but has not played yet this season due to injury. The New Mexico defense has really stepped up in last two games. They allowed just 522 combined yards vs the high powered offenses of Air Force and UTEP. Both opponents were held well below their season average.

Wyoming is in the middle of a tough four game losing streak. Their only win this season came vs horrible Utah State. Two of their last four have been road games on the East coast that were lost in overtime including a double overtime loss at Syracuse last week. This will be their third road game in five weeks and first back to back road game situation of the season. The Syracuse game was originally supposed to be a BYE week but was a late addition to their schedule. Redshirt freshman QB Karsten Sween replaced ineffective starter Jacob Doss in the second half last week and has been named the starter for this game. This will be his first career start against an unorthodox blitzing defense that is known for confusing inexperienced quarterbacks. Wyoming already enters the game 113th in the country in sacks allowed as it is. The Cowboy defense has allowed more points than the week before in every game this season (7, 13, 17, 31, 40). On the road is where the defense has historically been at its worst. Wyoming is just 2-10 straight up and 4-8 ATS in last 12 conference road games.

With the exception of last season New Mexico has always performed better in conference play (31-20 ATS since 1999) and in the second half of the season under Rocky Long. This year that should be even more evident as they adjust to a new offensive coordinator and a new QB. It is homecoming week for New Mexico and as of this writing ticket sales have been higher than any other game this season. The Lobos are 6-1 straight up in last seven homecoming games. They have also beaten Wyoming six straight times. The wrong team is favored here. Take the small dog.

RAS Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT

Right Angle Sports

[brady_44]

I enojy reading the picks and breakdowns every week, but do you only do teams in the WAC and Mountain West, or do you have analysis for the bigger games too?